Stochastic Simulation: Way To Go !

After the Association shared the ideas of Institutional Research Intelligence or Education Analytics about six years ago, the concept has been embraced by many–from higher learning institutions to the software companies who write and sell the canned analytics programs based on our manuscript presented at North Carolina Community College System Office Annual meetings in 2012 in Raleigh.  This pioneer work has changed the landscape of institutional research old profession to a deferent level, from reporting to applying data-driven strategic information to support Colleges’ administrators in the decision making process.  In the past, the top person for the job has the PR ability.  However, It is not enough now.  She or he needs to have the understanding and broad knowledge about all that requires to generate strategic information.

Six years later, where are we?  Well the IRI concept has developed even further.  The regulator’s public policy in the US has changed (either ways, good or bad) so much compared with they were 6 years ago.  This day, the higher ed industry, if you may wish to call it, is more volatile.  It is more uncertain, more competitive, and therefore these institutions are facing greater risks associated with student enrollment, state and federal financial aids and even donors’ support money.  Consequently, doing the business as usual is no longer relevant.  That said, applying the IRI version one (IRI V.1) will no longer provide the optimal solutions.  AAEA offers and shares to the public on the IRI Version 2, where stochastic simulation is the foundation for it.  Why simulation?  Simply because IRI V.2 provides the decision makers more flexible answers, based on different scenarios and possibilities which can be used in formulating strategic planning.  Think about the FED’s decision on the prime rate.  Before making it public, the FED has simulated what the impacts of such a change on the US macro economy such as aggregate demand and supply.

The applications of IRI V.2 at the college level are ample.  Think what will potentially happen if the state budget is reduced by 2% next year.  This is especially important where the State allocates education money based on individual college performance.  For example, the State of Florida or Tennessee and others have applied such a formula funding.  Think what will happen if graduation rate, which usually one of the components in the formula funding can be improved by 1%.  How much more money an institution will potentially receive from the State.  Other examples can go on and on.  The bottom line is this–if a higher ed institution has not applied or do not have the professional to apply IRI V.1., what and how that will impact their future financial stability and operational continuity?  What the positive impacts will it bring, if an institution is able to apply both IRI V.1 and IRI V.2?