The Association wrote on June 29, 2023 article that the SCOTUS ruling will have minimal impacts because of the Legacy admissions. Today, July 3, 2023 the media reported Harvard got sued because of its legacy admissions policy. Another AAEA correct prediction. Once mistakes were made, it will have endless consequences. With the high court’s sentiments, AAEA predicts the lawsuit will be rejected. The reason is simple, and we let the readers to make their best guess.
There is Only One: The USA
The US media has intensively covered SCOTUS’ recent ruling on college admissions. The analyses or comments that have been made often try to balance both sides, which is the core principles of how media coverage has to be done. Needless to say, while they are trying to balance their reporting, they got trap on the obsession to create the report title by using term or phrases which inciting more division among the society. For example, using the word “the liberals” or the “conservatives”. The use of these kind of terms will not help the country to heal–or to narrow the gap of differences among members in the society. There are no right or left–or blue and red or conservatives and liberals. There is only one–the United State of America. It is time for everyone to talk one nation-one country. As the big words quoted from the Declaration of Independence “that all men are created equal” has to be the foundation in all aspect of life in the country. One cannot make policy in partiality, because it is non-exitance in the “Declaration of Independence”. That having said, the 1978’s is not consistent with the ‘Declaration of Independence”.
SCOTUS’ Current Decision: A Little Too Late
Better late than never, a little too late because no policy intervention will yield perfect outcome–not even the first best outcome. The reason is simple because human is not perfect. But one can learn from this case–why it took 44 years to undone a policy that supposed to integrate different colors, yet produced the opposite results? Again the answer to this question is because humans make errors. Humans are the reflection of the imperfection itself. SCOTUS is not the creator of the existing, not even close. But, if every member of it works in totality to promote humanity, the best policy that is “good” for everyone will be produced. Partiality will only generate partial outcome–and may cause damages to the other half. Therefore, logical decision needs to be based on facts–not emotion, prejudice, partisanship, interest groups represented by the lobbyists or colors.
Still, the Americans are waiting on its ruling on student loans forgiveness. It will make another historic decision. One should expect that whatever the ruling is–it will be imperfect decision. What matters from the ruling is-will the decision generates more pains or will it helps easing the financial pressures of every working-class family in America?
SCOTUS Ruling: May Have Little Effects
Many parents are excited to hear the recent SCOTUS’ ruling. However, like any policy decision is imperfect, the recent ruling can be seen as one of those. After 44 years, the favorite schools have produced enough graduates, so the ruling may not have significant impacts to other hopeful groups as expected. Especially, if the composition of the new students pool leaned more towards the legacy group. Then should someone bring this new issue into the battle fields? There is always something that people can make an issue with to get by a system. But the best brain measured by various metrics will have higher probability of success regardless where this group will attend their college. Therefore, students will have a better chance if they work hard, and work smart during their pre-college programs–starting as early as students at the elementary school.
The College Admissions: SCOTUS Recent Ruling
The recent ruling announced today (June 29, 2023) from the SCOTUS can be seen from two or more angles. It often depends on one’s interest or political agenda that will affect her or his state-of-mind on the issue. But, it does not matter how one looks at it, it is all about illusion. Illusion that if I can not be admitted at my or may parents’ dreamed schools, then my life or my family’s life will be doomed. If my daughter or my son did not get an admissions offer from “the parents’ dreamed school”, then my family will suffer from humiliations. It is all about absurdity that affects one’s state-of-mind. Overtime, it creates an illusion in the society–that only graduates from top-ranked schools will be (financially) successful. The money illusions have indirectly caused other crucial problems, such as happiness. Do the following 3 factors related to each other? Graduate from top-ranked schools; financially secured and happy life?
This particular policy has slowed the process of natural human selection (evolution) down which in turn affects the speed of society advancements. Having strong determination, and the will and ability to overcome challenges are the most important ingredients for success. With abundant helps to those who do not want to help themselves will not move the needle, not even an inch. Other factors could play roles to affect the end outcome, but it is minimal. In other words, to determine the winner(s) in any sort of competition or races need to be based on merits and not colors, and not politics. Learn from the athletics world. The best team with highly determination and talented support group will win and be the champion. Is Uncle Sam more diverse and financially more equality found this day compared to the condition prior to 1978-the year when the policy was first introduced? The answer may be yes–for the benefitted group, what about equality to other groups. Perhaps, initial (past/1978) SCOTUS’ decision has unintended consequences and it even widened the gaps to bring different colors–not just two colors, together. In conclusion, any policy created based on fictions or emotions–not facts, and away from merits will not even generated the third-best outcome. It never will for it is just an illusion–a way from reality.
Confirmed: The DOW Passes 34K
On June 2, 2023, the Association has predicted that the DOW will pass 34K easily, and it was confirmed today (June 12). Data do not lie. Common sense is working regardless what the problems are. Applying illogical rhetoric slogans and thoughts have proved to be wrong in the past, now and forever in the future. So, use the data and logical mind in analyzing everything, including but not limited to exact science, but also social, as well as others such as political. Today, the DOW passes the 34K and closed at 34.066k. Looking at the data, and how illogical thoughts have swirled around in the US, one can easily predict who is going to lead the US, after the 2024 big-dance. Use facts and data only and not lies if one wants to win in any contests.
The DOW passed 34K has happened in the past months, but it never stayed long. However, this time, increasing DOW is different. It is supported by most necessary pillars–not only the US economy or geopolitics, but others as well. Congrats Uncle Sam to be so resilient and to bring stability in the global market.
How High The DOW Will Soar?
Disclaimer: These analyses are based on today’s events–it may not suggest anything to anyone in terms of future investments or what stocks to buy and other related financial matters. You are reading this article on your own. Therefore, the decision is yours, not the Association’s.
From data that are available in the public domain, and geo-politics, as well as the US domestics economic events, one might be able to conclude that the market in the near future will keep going up for the following reasons (1). Debt ceiling is no longer a concern, at least for now; (2). Strong labor market despite Fed’s unprecedented interest rate hikes; (3). Inflation is under control as results of past months Fed’s policy; (4). Redirected the traditional supply chain disruptions to be more aligned to the allies; (5). Assessments of conflicts and current war in Europe; (6). Possible direct invention to Taiwan is easing (wars do not solve problems as well as lesson-learned from the reality shifts of recent conflicts in Europe); (7). Stronger co-operations among allies surrounding the South-China sea as well as in Europe have deterred further bullies.
With those aforementioned factors and other variables, it is obvious that some countries have learned that the only viable solution for any border conflicts among or between countries can be done through negotiations (not bombs or missiles) based on rules, regulations and accepted and adopted practices in the international settings. The market will pass 34K easily, but no one knows how high will it go. The prosperity among non-BRICS member countries (size matters) will soon become realities through strengthening supply chain and more effective, and fair free-trade based on competitive advantages paradigm. This in-turn will reduce input price, lower output selling price and increase corporate EPS among allies countries.
Where is Our Wisdom Coming From?
Many readers ask why AAEA was able to predict many events correctly? It must have the wisdom on doing that. The answer is clear. We use data, and set aside political interests. The Association uses logic to unveil many stories behind the data. One plus one will never be 3. It never defies the mathematical logic and common knowledge. On the other hand, politics, self-interests, group interests, short-term goals, and lobbyists will tweak common logic to fit their group-interests which are often not-in-the-best of public interests. The law makers need to start operate or behave for the interest of their constituents–not the lobbyists, or group or personal interest. Take an example what the US House and Senate public policy has made on students loans forgiveness. The question is simple. Is the rejection of the students loans forgiveness consistent with the US public interest? By now the US public and all student loans borrowers have to keep in mind when they go to the poll in future election.
Confirmed: AAEA’s Analyses On Inflation & Labor Market Are Correct
On October 24, 2022, AAEA has written the analyses on the inflation, labor market and Fed policy efforts to tame the inflation. Approximately 8 months later, our analyses are correctly confirmed by the market where, at one point, the DOW gains more than 600 points. The results of our data analyses are confirmed by the facts. The real world data published today, June second show that despite Fed flurries interest rate hikes, it is confirmed that the effects on the labor market is minimal, less than what the policy maker has anticipated from the simulation model. Today’s announcement also confirmed strongly the Association’s analyses written on the same date eight months ago. The bottom line is that folks prefer to pay a bit more on their groceries, but are employed. Rather than, lower inflation, but without jobs.
Just-in From NPR: Un-grading Courses
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Amazingly, after finished writing 5 parts on Uncle Sam’s education challenges, a friend sent us a link which appeared to be NPR article on un-grading. Basically, the idea is based on the following premises:
- A good grade such as an A does not guarantee to reflect students level of learning.
- Most of freshmen-year students are not ready for college-level classes. Therefore, they have to be given opportunity to adjust with the college life. Note that this un-grading can be expanded beyond first-year students as well.
Let us analyze such an initiative using a logical approach. Here are list of possible notes:
- If the students are not ready for college-level classes–it means that something is broken at the previous education level, read PreK-12.
- Cited on the NPR’s article is a freshman who needs to balance her life activities such as studying and working. Does this means the cost of education is too expensive such that it is unaffordable, even after taking the student loans? or
- Should the student loans be expanded to also cover cost of living?
- When students applied for admissions, do not they have to submit their assessment tests such as ACT or SAT, or at least their high school transcripts? Are this information has no value to measure the prospects’ college readiness?
One certainly has more questions than answers. Also note, recent push to eliminate assessment tests such as ACT or SAT for college applicants showed some success. Some schools, such as Harvard has put on hold the assessment test submissions as one of application requirements for the class of 26 through 30. Applicants’ readiness for taking college classes are different across locations and institutions. However, there are common predictors of students success which can be used to substitute for the assessment tests such as high school GPA, the rigor of the courses as evident from the AP tests or from the applicants’ essays (assuming no consultant was hired to write it or no Chatgpt has been used in the process. While eliminating the assessment requirements will open a wider-door for accessing college education, and therefore increase diversity, one may need to calculate where is the optimum level of the trade-off. In the mathematical and business/economics optimization language what is the unique equilibrium that will maximize both objectives, i.e. increase college access and diversity without risking the quality of college education. This is a matter of empirical questions which can be found through stochastic simulation, instead of through a try-and-error approach.