Data and Midterm Elections

As the Americans are heading to cast their votes, there are so many distractions, lies, or even empty promises that have been thrown out there to lure voters. All these campaigns can be grouped into two categories-either lies or truthfulness. In such a case, the only way that voters can choose correctly is based on logical analyses and data in the decision making process. This BLOG article shows voters that it does not matter what the colors of one has-either green or olive. Data do not lie. Data do not depend on what the colors are. Data are reality–the presentation of facts; and they can be verified based on logic. Voters will hear either information, or worse yet dis-information, during this special events. For example, people are taking how bad the current economy is; or how expensive the gas price is. All of these inflation and rising food price talks are happening all over the world–and are just specifically occurring in the US. Needless to say that the US economy is still the best in the world–and thanks to the talent of those who are managing the economy which is, by far is still better than those of in other countries. Factors that affect all the high price–or the inflation if one wishes to call it, are affected by both external and internal factors. Crude oil importers cannot tell the exporting countries to sell their product at a price that the consumers want to pay (in extreme case–consumers always want to get everything for FREE, right?). Luckily, the Adam Smith’s infeasible hand always governs the market. It is all about demand and supply–and what is happening in the US, is just a shift in asset allocations due to uncertainties such as wars, global warming, exploding world population or geopolitics. None of these external factors can be controlled by anyone’s color, because they are independent–the world is bigger than any specific country. Therefore, using these external phenomena on the campaign trails are just reflections of lies, illogical, wishful thinking, and deceits. No one, in this planet–regardless of his color can govern droughts and make the level of Mississippi river back to the 50’s again. I wish, that I could!. Therefore, do not let deceit govern your life.

First ITT, and Now Westwood College $1.5 Billion Student Loans Were Cancelled

The good news for the student loans (SL) borrowers continues this week. It first started with ITT SL cancellations. On August 30, 2022 AAEA learned that the DOE announced the 79K Westwood College’s SL borrowers have been cancelled. For many years, AAEA has done analyses based on historical data, and arrived in the conclusions that, some, if not all for-profit colleges or not-for profit higher educational institutions have tainted business model. Could, however, these defunct colleges solely to be blamed? Of course, there so many factors plays important roles in creating the unfortunate situation. One of them is lack-of-government control., i.e., audit on many aspects of higher ed. There are 2 main factors contributed to the problem. They are: (1). Academic related, and (2). Money related issues. The academic related issues are hoped to be managed through accreditation agencies. But, it proved to yield mediocre results. On the money side, one cannot see real efforts from the government to control the college operating cost.

Bounded Rationality and Student Loans

Needless to say, recent policy taken on student loans by the current administration became headlines and hot national debate in the US media. From the public comments, one would be able to classified them into two groups, where are they coming from: Opponents (OG) and Supporters (SG) group.

  1. Including in the OG are those (1). Who never agreed on anything, if any policy comes from another isle. Called these people as a permanent opposition. This group often, if not all the time operates under the illogical and irrational countered assumptions. (2). The second cluster in this group are those who try to seize the moment to be in 15 minutes fame, even though they have to adopt irrational reasoning such as one plus one is not equal to two, but ten.
  2. Including in the SG or second group are the “ungrateful” folks. People classified in this group are those who never feel enough. These complainers never satisfy with what have been given to them, They want more, and more and more. However, if one asks them what have they done to help themselves, there will be zero answer. Classified in this group are those poor decision makers who cannot see the consequences of their actions. For example, in each new semester student A registers to take 12 credit hours. However, on the middle-of-the semester drop 9 credit hours, and left only with 3 hours. Consequently, it will take her or him forever to complete the program. As results, her or his loans are ballooning. These folks then say the $10K or $20K cancellations are not enough. They want more. They want someone else to pay for their mistakes. Often this group plays as if they are the victim or use the sympathy as strategies to justify and to cover-up their weaknesses.

Therefore, it does not matter what one color is. One can always be able to identify both groups as irrational. Therefore, one should not be bothered of what their comments are. The reason is simple, because both group cannot do a basic reasoning, other than complaining. They are not problem solvers, but problem makers. Otherwise, they will be genuine supporters of using data and honesty principles to make inference and to govern their lives.

A Win For America: Cancelled Student Loans

On August 24, 2022, the government announced to the American student loans borrowers that $10k or $20k for Pell recipients of their loans will be cancelled. It is truly amazing what AAEA has voiced to the American public many years ago, has finally became a reality. For years, AAEA has argued, and laid out the fundamental economic theory, the logic, and findings based on historical data and statistical analyses, of why such a policy is necessary. Some say, the timing is politically motivated because of the midterm elections. The facts are that such a cut will help million of borrowers, regardless of the political events that are going on. The average working class in America cares less about politics. Therefore, it does not matter what the motivations were, but to see the reality, the real positive impacts to the average American working class. The facts that the sufferings of young and adult Americans who have been treated as a working bees for many years to satisfy the Wall Street have been relinquished. It is all about common sense, and not because deep, blue, green, red, white, black or yellow states. Rather, the state of logic that matters. Majority of the American public follows the mass or collective consciousness or collective conscience which helps the society as a whole to navigate the ignorance, lies, deceit or disinformation. People have to start using their own rationality and consciousness in the decision making process. If every single American uses her or his own deductive reasoning to make inference, rather than believing on spread rumors or because the “Caesar” said so, kind of things, then collective conscience (CC) will or can be formed. This CC then is a powerful mechanism or tool to reject or to avoid making collective mistakes such that believing on illogical news spread among members of the American society.

CONGRATULATIONS AMERICA. You have shown your strength!!

Follow Up On ACICS Analyses

Based on the DOE’s website, written on August 19, 2022, an accrediting agency role by the name of ACICS has been terminated. ACICS stands for Accrediting Council for Independent Colleges and Schools. AAEA has written several articles about the role of this agency in the past few years. This long overdue termination does not surprise AAEA. In fact, the Association is surprise why it took two administrations to make such an important decision? Based on this fact, then, one can make an inference, which administration has prioritized the need of the working bees in the country.

Equity Gap, Bounded Rationale and Data Science

We have discussed the role of Data Science (DS) in previous BLOG, many years ago. In the past 9 years, DS has become a hot potato. Practically speaking, every higher ed institution tries to capture this opportunity, even though some may be the followers because others did it. DS is needed because of bounded rationale of human mind to be able to analyze voluminous data, and be able to transform them into meaningful information.

DS is not someone who can write a code in R or Python alone. But a statistician and a strategist as well. DS is not a coder, but a decoder. More importantly, someone who has the ability to see the future because of what he does with the data. He is a scientific fortune teller. So, knowing how to write codes, does not make someone to be a DS. Because, it requires more than the ability to write SQL queries. It is the ability to show a better path, other than the current condition that matters most. For example, how can an institution is able to empower their employees using DS. How can DS contribute to lower cost of production. How DS can lower the product selling price. Those are what matters. It is not just to increase an entity’s bottom line, because that is too simplistic. That is not DS.

Higher ed now is challenged to come out with viable solutions on addressing equity gap. How can higher learning institutions are able to reduce equity gap using DS? This also shows that the old Institutional Research concept is dead, many years ago for its inability to address many issues, not just student loans or ever increasing college cost. The ability to transform data to increase the well-being of the society, that what matters. And that what IRI is.

WELCOME 2021

It was almost exactly a year ago when we wrote the last post. There were many events that have happened in the past 12 months. In this welcome-back post, AAEA would like to check out two important changes that have happened while the Association was taking a break. The first one is on the student loans. During the big dance, the young Americans and those who have suffered from paying students loans are the real winners in that event. Congratulations.

The second point that we would like to address on this occasion is the other kind of pandemics that the country is facing. This disease is much contiguous compared to that of C-19. In facts, it is too dangerous which may cripple the whole system for pharma companies cannot produce the cure this type of disease from their research lab. Talking lies and false claims those are the kind of pandemic that we are referring to. Living in a dream world, and defies reality. Making claims and policies that do not based on facts, is nothing but surely will lead to failures.

Some people are experimenting and try to find an un-existing equilibrium. They think that they are very smart, and combined with the ego which is bigger than the universe itself, that they can flip the world and redirect the equilibrium to a more efficient one. In this case, it is too costly to experiment with a new system which has not been proved to work better than with any other systems. Using the stock market as a sole indicator to measure how the economy works is just absurd. Otherwise, the Founding Father of the country may have written those specific in the Declaration of Independence as the sole objective and the reason why the country is formed. The fact that they are wiser not to use it as a single yardstick to measure the well being of the Americans in totality. The stock market can be manipulated as shown by the army of day traders that recently bring the short seller to find a cover.

In short, this slogan of protectionism is nothing but the weeds that grow in the spring time. When the weather gets warmer, they will die. The history shows that there are many more logical people than those of dreamers. Therefore, the country will survive though have to walk on bumpy roads. Hang in there America!!

New Trends Observed: Move Away from Data to Strategic Information Provider

If one follows closely what has happened in the area of data science, in general, and in higher ed in particular, then one might observe that a data scientist has additional job to do, which is to provide strategic information to the decision makers.

Consequently, this requires that data scientists (DSs) have to have various background, away from the traditional areas such as the ability to code or knowing basic statistics.  DSs have to equip themselves with different areas which traditionally belong to the CPA or MBA holders.  In other words, knowing how to code is no longer enough.  DSs are expected to be able to relate what the codes have outputted with the business metrics such as sale, revenue, and as far as product costing and new product development.

For example, in the east cost, some higher ed institutions are recruiting for those who have the ability to forecast students’ enrollment, both using econometric or time-series analyses.  Also the position requires that the DS is able to identify key metrics and find strategies to outsmart the competitors.

Years ago, folks in education industry used to identify other institutions as their “peers”.  But now, they are not shy to identify them as our “competitors“.

A Servicing Company Owes the Government $22.3 Million

Recently one of the candidates who is participating in 2020 big dance has asked a major student loan servicing institution to pay $22.3 million to the federal government.  This money, according to the report has been asked by the candidate due to “massively overcharging the federal government in a years-long scandal “.

Hello DOE, how has this occurred?  One lesson learned from this case is that DOE did not do either compliance nor the financial audit.  The Association has long argued that Uncle Sam needs to have ESCC. It does matter if the color of the administration is red or blue.  Interestingly, it seems the three government branches are both deft and mute.  For none of them has the interest or will to work for their constituents.  They just need their valuable votes.  Therefore, the American public has to learn which candidate will work for the general or public interests.

It is pretty clear that the company has followed the maximizing behavior as discussed by the neoclassical economists in the past.  However, the economists never suggested that in order to be consistent with the rational behavior, it should break the laws and/or regulations.  This is what the Association has discussed about the missing constraints in the firms’ maximizing behavior model.

Apparently, this candidate is pretty persistent and consistent in her paramount motivation to run in the 2020 big dance.  Her objectives are nothing but:

  1. To work for the American public’s interests.
  2. To make college education is affordable to every American.
  3. To make the country back to the NDEA’s original soul.