College Affordability Rating (CAR) and Future College Reaccreditation Process

Potentially the College Affordability Rating will be added as one of the re-accreditation conditions that need to be met by US colleges. Looking ahead what is coming in 2014, AAEA has seen the potential applications of the CAR among other measures in college accreditation process. If this is the case, some colleges especially those with triple Bs rating will have difficult time to survive. For those who are currently have at least two As on any of the first three components of the CAR might be able to survive. Private-small colleges such as Liberal Arts with a B rating on their graduation rate might suffer significant consequences from the implementation of the newly proposed CAR regulation.

Please write us what do you guys think the impacts would have on the US macroeconomics?

December 11, 2013 College Submit and Its Implications on US Higher Education

As you guys may be aware Yahoo! News has recently written an article that on December 11, 2013 the administrator will hold a day-long submits at the White House. The meeting is called College Submit and stated that “President Barack Obama is summoning college presidents and business leaders to a daylong Dec. 11 summit at the White House to discuss specific ways to make higher education more accessible to low-income students”. The report continues announcing that “The Dec. 11 summit is being run by the National Economic Council, the Domestic Policy Council, and the Department of Education, and will serve as the launching pad for a college affordability drive that will likely run for months — potentially right up to the November 2014 elections. First lady Michelle Obama is expected to play a role in next week’s kickoff event and going forward”.

The College Submit indicates that the newly proposed College Affordability Rating (CAR) will be promoted, campaigned and will become the law of the land in the future.  It will have big financial impacts and may affect the existence of some colleges if the CAR becomes the law.  AAEA has published the ‘PROXY RATINGS” to help US colleges to anticipate the impacts that it may have on them.

Please let us know what you guys think?

Ivy League Schools Future Survival Studies

Starting on November 18, 2013, the Association of American Education Analytics (AAEA) will share its research finding on future survival rate (FSR) of US Colleges.  It will start with the Ivy League schools (please click here to read the report).  The rate is calculated by comparing net tuition revenue after institutional grant aids and total general and education expenses (please see footnote on each figure).  Lower FSR reflects a lower survival rate and vice versa.  Except for UPenn, it is truly amazing to see that all of them have one thing in common in that the FSR has decreased tremendously in the last 10 years.  Meaning their ability to survive financially has deteriorated overtime. Harvard recently announced and admitted the financial challenges that the school is facing.  By looking at these graphs, one may not be so surprised to learn Harvard’s $34 million budget deficit.  Examining and analyzing the graphs below, will it suggest that other Ivy League schools are facing the same problem as that of Harvard’s?

Please let us know what you guys think?


[1] Harry Djunaidi led the completion of these research projects.

IRI Paradigms are Urgently Needed to Manage US Higher Ed Industry: The Case of Harvard University

While the new IRI (Institutional Research Intelligence) paradigm has been developed in 2010, only in March 2013, the new concepts were introduced to the American public through the publication of the first ever written education analytics book (IRI: Go beyond Reporting) and the launching of AAEA website. Several years ago, the Association has anticipated the upcoming phenomenal and structural changes that may impact the US colleges’ survival. Only by implementing new paradigms they may be able to navigate the new sea of competition (AAEA has written an article on this issue in this blog on March 13, 2013). AAEA has encouraged the US colleges to operate more efficiently, to cut the unnecessary spending sprees, managing the overpaid full professors’ or decision makers’ salary, over investment, rethink about the tenure system, over expanding and matching retirement policy. These encouragements are pursued in different ways, such as sharing research results, conducted numerous presentations or writing and publishing numerous articles in this blog.

Therefore, recent announcement of Harvard’s budget deficit two-year in a row is not a surprise for us at AAEA. This, in fact confirmed our analyses are indeed in the right path. If US colleges want to survive, they have to change the way they do business as suggested by Harvard’s Vice President and CFO as quoted and published by Harvard Gazette on November 8, 2013. He specifically mentioned how challenging and “complicated choice” it will be to deal with specific issues related to the benefits and cost cutting management (the Association has discussed the issue in this blog on March 18, 2018). Perhaps, this is the right time for colleges to start implementing the IRI paradigm which are based on education analytics in the decision making process which will help to change the campus culture and to replace the “old wisdom” to manage higher education in the US. AAEA is always ready to help colleges to accomplish and implement the IRI paradigms—which is a total approach to manage higher education industry to operate and apply more cost effective approaches.

AAEA’s Comments on: Ratings will Punish Colleges and Students for Factors They Cannot Control

During a conference call between the US Secretary of Education and reporters as published in an article in Chronicle Journal of Higher Education on November 5, 2013 (please click here to read the whole article). Basically there are three points raised by the reporters on the application of CAR.

  1. Data aren’t good enough to calculate the rating.
  2. Ratings will penalize colleges that serve the neediest students; and
  3. Ratings will punish colleges and students for factors they cannot control.

In this page, we are going to discuss the third point.  The statement itself is not correct:  CAR will not punish anybody including the students.  In fact, the regulation is introduced to protect students’ and the colleges’ interests.  There is no punishment and no one will be harmed by the CAR.  The regulation itself is geared to encourage and to protect both students’ and colleges’ long-run interests.  Students are encouraged to work harder, smarter and tactful toward learning and finishing their study as it supposed to in term of the completion time.  Colleges as service providers are expected to deliver the best quality of instructions at the best values.  That is all.  If there is any factor beyond one’s control, then it will be handled case by case.  However, ill motivations will not be part in the equation.  Both US colleges and students have to stop with all the excuses, whining and blaming games.   Take charge of your future in responsible ways.  In order to keep everyone in line, the US needs a compliance agency to ensure that every players in the education industry to comply with the rule of the game.  The current accreditation agencies have failed to accomplish their job.  The US needs Education Standard and Compliance Commissions (ESCC).  Does the CAR reflect the accreditation agencies such as those listed below have not achieved their objective optimally?

  1. Middle States Association of Colleges and Schools – Educational institutions in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Maryland, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and the US Virgin Islands, as well as schools for American children in Europe, North Africa, and the Middle East.
  2. New England Association of Schools and Colleges – Educational institutions in the six New England states (Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Vermont).
  3. North Central Association of Colleges and Schools – Educational institutions in Arkansas, Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, North Dakota, Nebraska, New Mexico, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Wisconsin, West Virginia, and Wyoming.
  4. Northwest Accreditation Commission for primary and secondary schools and Northwest Commission on Colleges and Universities for postsecondary institutions in Alaska, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, and Washington.
  5. Southern Association of Colleges and Schools – Educational institutions in Virginia, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Alabama, Tennessee and Texas.
  6. Western Association of Schools and Colleges – Educational institutions in California, Hawaii, Guam, American Samoa, Micronesia, Palau, and Northern Marianas Islands, as well as schools for American children in Asia.

Please tell us do you guys think, the US needs another watch dog such as ESCC?

AAEA’s Comment On: Ratings Penalize Colleges that Serve the Neediest Students

During a conference call between the US Secretary of Education and reporters as published in an article in Chronicle Journal of Higher Education on November 5, 2013 (please click here to read the whole article). Basically there are three points raised by the reporters on the application of CAR.

  1. Data aren’t good enough to calculate the rating.
  2. Ratings will penalize colleges that serve the neediest students; and
  3. Ratings will punish colleges and students for factors they cannot control.

A couple of months ago AAEA has published its research results and have made the above conclusion (second point).   One needs to understand the story why the CAR is finally—yes, finally is introduced.  It is long overdue regulations.  Though most of you have known the answer, let us reiterate here, “the motivation is to encourage US colleges to operate more efficiently”

Over hundred years US colleges have been given the privilege as a non-profit organization and whatever budget that they ask will be approved (mostly rubber stamped) by the lawmakers or school Board with minor adjustments.  Operating under leniency has made some of these institutions to forget that they are still required to operate based on “minimizing cost paradigms”, with its tax exempt status.

The prolonged inefficiency that has happened many years was reflected by college tuition increases without a sign of stabilizing, except in most recent years where the rate of increasing is slower, but the tuition still increases.  When the college graduates can find a job, no one cares enough to say something about the tuition hikes.  However, 2008 financial crises and starting in 2003, the society’s, students’ and tax payers’ outcries are much louder and almost every day the topics are covered by the media.  Therefore, the regulator just cannot ignore it anymore.  When the student loans hits the $1 trillion mark, things are getting really noisy.

AAEA has suggested that rather than whining, US Colleges are better off to do something useful which may help their institution to get a higher CAR rating.  AAEA has opened its arms and door widely to support US colleges that wanted to increase their graduation rate FOR FREE.  Four years may give enough time for an institution to get their graduation rate and other metrics improved.

Please write below what you guys think about colleges’ tax exempt status?  Should this privileged be granted forever or should there be any time limit?

 

AAEA’s Comments On: Data Imperfection for the CAR Application

During a conference call between the US Secretary of Education and reporters as published in an article in Chronicle Journal of Higher Education on November 5, 2013 (please click here to read the whole article). Basically there are three points raised by the reporters on the application of CAR.

  1. Data aren’t good enough to calculate the rating.
  2. Ratings will penalize colleges that serve the neediest students; and
  3. Ratings will punish colleges and students for factors they cannot control.

AAEA would like to comment each of the issues which have been raised.  In this page we will comments on “Data aren’t good enough to calculate the rating

Let us critically analyze the first comment on the data.  The skeptics argue that the ratings are calculated based on flawed data.  The Secretary of Education has admitted that the data may not be perfect.  He further said that “imperfect data should not be an excuse for inaction”.

AAEA’s comments:

  1. Imperfection of data will always be there.  However, there are statistical techniques and approaches which can be used to minimize such an imperfection.  For example, if the benchmark is calculated based on the state’s average (statistical mean) number; one can apply the standard deviation to overcome such random errors.
  2. Having said that in point 1, perhaps using the statistical average (mean) has advantages than of using the median.
  3. However, the median is better if the sample size has a lot of missing values and if observations from different institutions are unequal in size.

Please let us know your comments below.  Should or should not data imperfection be used as a reason for not applying the CAR?

AAEA’s Assessments on CAR are Confirmed by the US Higher Ed and the Regulator

Based on our earlier research and analyses (about two months ago), we have said that the CAR will affect smaller colleges and it may impact economically disadvantaged students as well (for detailed, please click here and here).  These research findings and our assessments have been confirmed during a conference call between the US Secretary of Education and reporters as published in an article in Chronicle Journal of Higher Education on November 5, 2013 (please click here to read the whole article). Basically there are three points raised by the education institutions on the application of CAR. (1).  Data aren’t good enough to calculate the rating; (2). Ratings will penalize colleges that serve the neediest students; and (3).  Ratings will punish colleges and students for factors they cannot control.  Regardless of the comments, one thing for sure will happen is that the CAR regulation will make colleges to operate more efficiently.

AAEA has contributed to find the way-out on such delicate issues.  Our further comments on the four variables are as follow:

  1. The first three variables are justifiable (average tuition, graduation rate and average student debts) to be used.  Apply either the State mean or median number in the past ten-years to calculate and create the benchmark to assign the CAR ratings.  This number will be lower than using the most current years in calculating the median or the average.  Therefore, it will work in favor of higher education institutions and no one will get punished.
  2. Average tuition and student debts can be calculated based on the past ten years, and factor in inflation in the calculation (adjusted using hepi_scalar_2010 variable) i.e., use the real price instead of the nominal price.
  3. Applying ten years past graduation rate will answer questions from those colleges with lower success rate.  Logically, if the average graduation rate is flat in the past 10 years, perhaps nothing can be done in the next 10 years either.
  4. The average earning of graduates number will be difficult to use.  If it does, it surely will create unending, unnecessary and unproductive discussions.  Especially from those colleges who negatively impacted from the CAR new proposed regulation.

From reading the article, one may notice that some institutions start
worrying and whining about the CAR
.

Please tell us what you guys think? Should the regulator backs down?

 

 

If Colleges Are Dishonest Who Else Can We Trust?

The media recently reported George Washington University’s dishonest on their admissions policy.  For complete article, please click here and here Students are put on  wait list simply because they cannot afford to pay the institution’s $61K cost of attendance.   This is another example that the application of newly proposed College Affordability Rating (CAR) is justifiable.
Please comments what you guys think?

College Tuition: Hidden Facts?

AAEA is glad to learn that finally the rate (growth) of college tuition increases have slowed in the past two years as reported by the College Board and quoted and written by John Sandman for MainStreet. For complete article, please click here. Keep in mind that the tuition is still increasing, but at the slower rate (that is what it meant by declining rate of tuition increases). The article further mentions that tuition declining is also followed by decreasing government aids.
AAEA would like to take further analyses on college tuition pricing policy using an example. Suppose that Mr. ABC gets admitted to study at College XYZ and his financial award letter is shown in scenario A:

image
Scenario A is a simple version of the financial award letter that the admitted applicants will receive. Let us analyze what are happening here.
1. If one compares scenario A and B, she or he noted that the Net Cost of Attendance is the same ($10,400). However, scenario A and B show two different things.
2. On scenario B, the tuition has dropped from $15K to $7K. This drop comes from subtracting $15K with the sum of scholarship A and B.
3. Potentially scholarship A and B are not real scholarships (sometimes it was disguised under college tuition discount or tuition subsidy). But were mentioned in the award letter to show that College XYZ is generous enough to “award” the candidate with “bogus” financial aids so that Mr. ABC feels good or at least feel that he is appreciated or that College XYZ cares of his future education. This strategy is closely tight with the college retention objective.
4. The actual tuition is not $15K, rather only $7K.
5. Some portion of the applicant groups may pay the $15K by taking student loans or his or her parents may take government Parent Plus loans to pay for the inflated tuition.
6. The tuition has been inflated by (8K/7K)=114%.
7. If the “extra” money ($8K) is spent to improve student learning outcomes then it is justifiable.
8. However, if it goes for spending sprees and to increase the administrators’ salary, then college pricing practice is questionable. Our study finds for each $1.00 taken student loans, more than 40 percent goes to support the college overhead cost, public services and full-professors’ salary.  For details of the statistical or econometric study on the topic, please click here.

All in all, we are not sure who started or recommended such pricing decisions and why the consumers are willing to bail out the inefficiency? After over 150 years the society does not really know what is going on and why alumni and contributors are still supporting the inefficient system. However, one thing that we know from this simple example in that colleges are failed to be the agent of development and the agent of change as they supposed to and as they have claimed. Rather, they almost make the US economy to go bankrupt.  Please read what the president of Converse College has said on how do US colleges make their decision on the tuition.
Readers, please write below your comments?