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DOW Will Soon Hit 35K: As Data Predicted

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Disclaimer. You read articles based on your decision alone. Our analyses do not suggest to take a particular position in any forms of investments or financial strategies. The Association does not make any recommendations on any type of financial decisions.

Needless to say that our analyses which published six weeks ago (June 2nd, 2023) have been proved again by the market. Read the BLOG here. Those who comprehend what we said about the 7 elements will enjoy the benefits. However, it may need to go through several iterations before it finally passes the 35k. Again, and again our analyses are correct for we use data–not rumors. We use common sense–not lies. We rely on logical approach–not skirmish among different colors. We only have one color–the love to help others to grow.

How High The DOW Will Soar?

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Disclaimer: These analyses are based on today’s events–it may not suggest anything to anyone in terms of future investments or what stocks to buy and other related financial matters. You are reading this article on your own. Therefore, the decision is yours, not the Association’s.

From data that are available in the public domain, and geo-politics, as well as the US domestics economic events, one might be able to conclude that the market in the near future will keep going up for the following reasons (1). Debt ceiling is no longer a concern, at least for now; (2). Strong labor market despite Fed’s unprecedented interest rate hikes; (3). Inflation is under control as results of past months Fed’s policy; (4). Redirected the traditional supply chain disruptions to be more aligned to the allies; (5). Assessments of conflicts and current war in Europe; (6). Possible direct invention to Taiwan is easing (wars do not solve problems as well as lesson-learned from the reality shifts of recent conflicts in Europe); (7). Stronger co-operations among allies surrounding the South-China sea as well as in Europe have deterred further bullies.

With those aforementioned factors and other variables, it is obvious that some countries have learned that the only viable solution for any border conflicts among or between countries can be done through negotiations (not bombs or missiles) based on rules, regulations and accepted and adopted practices in the international settings. The market will pass 34K easily, but no one knows how high will it go. The prosperity among non-BRICS member countries (size matters) will soon become realities through strengthening supply chain and more effective, and fair free-trade based on competitive advantages paradigm. This in-turn will reduce input price, lower output selling price and increase corporate EPS among allies countries.

Where is Our Wisdom Coming From?

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Many readers ask why AAEA was able to predict many events correctly? It must have the wisdom on doing that. The answer is clear. We use data, and set aside political interests. The Association uses logic to unveil many stories behind the data. One plus one will never be 3. It never defies the mathematical logic and common knowledge. On the other hand, politics, self-interests, group interests, short-term goals, and lobbyists will tweak common logic to fit their group-interests which are often not-in-the-best of public interests. The law makers need to start operate or behave for the interest of their constituents–not the lobbyists, or group or personal interest. Take an example what the US House and Senate public policy has made on students loans forgiveness. The question is simple. Is the rejection of the students loans forgiveness consistent with the US public interest? By now the US public and all student loans borrowers have to keep in mind when they go to the poll in future election.

Confirmed: AAEA’s Analyses On Inflation & Labor Market Are Correct

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On October 24, 2022, AAEA has written the analyses on the inflation, labor market and Fed policy efforts to tame the inflation. Approximately 8 months later, our analyses are correctly confirmed by the market where, at one point, the DOW gains more than 600 points. The results of our data analyses are confirmed by the facts. The real world data published today, June second show that despite Fed flurries interest rate hikes, it is confirmed that the effects on the labor market is minimal, less than what the policy maker has anticipated from the simulation model. Today’s announcement also confirmed strongly the Association’s analyses written on the same date eight months ago. The bottom line is that folks prefer to pay a bit more on their groceries, but are employed. Rather than, lower inflation, but without jobs.

Just-in From NPR: Un-grading Courses

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Amazingly, after finished writing 5 parts on Uncle Sam’s education challenges, a friend sent us a link which appeared to be NPR article on un-grading. Basically, the idea is based on the following premises:

  1. A good grade such as an A does not guarantee to reflect students level of learning.
  2. Most of freshmen-year students are not ready for college-level classes. Therefore, they have to be given opportunity to adjust with the college life. Note that this un-grading can be expanded beyond first-year students as well.

Let us analyze such an initiative using a logical approach. Here are list of possible notes:

  1. If the students are not ready for college-level classes–it means that something is broken at the previous education level, read PreK-12.
  2. Cited on the NPR’s article is a freshman who needs to balance her life activities such as studying and working. Does this means the cost of education is too expensive such that it is unaffordable, even after taking the student loans? or
  3. Should the student loans be expanded to also cover cost of living?
  4. When students applied for admissions, do not they have to submit their assessment tests such as ACT or SAT, or at least their high school transcripts? Are this information has no value to measure the prospects’ college readiness?

One certainly has more questions than answers. Also note, recent push to eliminate assessment tests such as ACT or SAT for college applicants showed some success. Some schools, such as Harvard has put on hold the assessment test submissions as one of application requirements for the class of 26 through 30. Applicants’ readiness for taking college classes are different across locations and institutions. However, there are common predictors of students success which can be used to substitute for the assessment tests such as high school GPA, the rigor of the courses as evident from the AP tests or from the applicants’ essays (assuming no consultant was hired to write it or no Chatgpt has been used in the process. While eliminating the assessment requirements will open a wider-door for accessing college education, and therefore increase diversity, one may need to calculate where is the optimum level of the trade-off. In the mathematical and business/economics optimization language what is the unique equilibrium that will maximize both objectives, i.e. increase college access and diversity without risking the quality of college education. This is a matter of empirical questions which can be found through stochastic simulation, instead of through a try-and-error approach.

Is The American Education At Risk? (Part 5)

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Yes, according this article. So, what factors have put the US education at Risk? The author of the article mentioned the legislative branch. In order to answer that important question, one needs to evaluate the whole elements that make-up the system. It can be approached from many angles. However, the most efficient way is from analyzing who are the stakeholders. The following list show the main players in the education industry:

  1. Students.
  2. Parents.
  3. Teachers.
  4. School administrators.
  5. Private companies–read lobbyists.
  6. Executive branch–administration or government.
  7. Legislative branch-the lawmakers in the Hill.

The list above can be cramped into 3 group: (1). Parents, students and School Administrators (PSSA); (2). Executive branch (EB); and (3).Legislative branch plus lobbyists (LBL). Furthermore, one might be able to squeeze further the above classifications into two groups ,i.e. the policy makers (PM) and the policy doers (PD). The article suspects that PM is the real culprit. Readers need to notice that one sub-element in PM is the lobbyists who provide services to make profit/money. Therefore, their interests often contradict the PD’s interests in which it has embedded parents’ interests. The real example of such a conflict is on student loans. Supposedly, PM should work for its constituents’ interests. But, in case of student loans it does not reflect that at all. Luckily, members of PM are elected officials with finite term to serve. Therefore, the constituents are able to select (vote) which of the candidate will be able to represent their needs. The constituents have the ability to make a rational choice, instead of irrational. Unless this issue got resolved, the US will continue facing the issue in its education. Please click the following links to access Part 1, Part 2, Part 3 and Part 4.

Let Us Be Fair: Survey on Impacts of Social Media Apps on Students’ Learning Outcomes

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Recently, all media reported of how a social media apps CEO was grilled in the Hill. From the Q&A, one cannot see data that support the claims that the apps does or does not affect the users. Reported recently that the apps has negative impacts, especially among the younger generation. Click here for reading the report. However, the story was quoted from just one-person. As a Data Scientist, one needs not to make any decision or conclusion only based on limited observation for it is practically impossible to justify and make strategic decisions because of one observation. In order to find better answers on the issue, AAEA is conducting a survey, and we invite everyone all over the world to participate by clicking the following link:

==THE IMPACTS OF SOCIAL MEDIA SURVEY==

Thank you for your participation. The results will be shared on this site.

Again, AAEA Analyses Help Predicting the DOW Movements

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On October 24, 2022 AAEA has shared its analyses, and predicted, based on logic, and data that the next choice of macro policy will finally lead towards keeping the employment instead of pressing further with hiking the interest rate at all cost. Our simple analyses using Econ 101 shows that, given what is happening in Europe, Americans will be much better-off to pay a little higher price at the grocery stores against losing their jobs. These analyses have been proved to calm down the Wall Street, help law makers to understand the issues, and shed the light to the Labor Secretary.

After we published the analyses, the DOW has consecutively move upwards for 4 days in a row. Another AAEA article written on October 26, post a question of why the US cannot produce more goods and services, which in-turn will be able to manage the inflationary situation, by increasing the aggregate supply from S1 to S2. This movement reflects by a gradual increase on national output from Q1 to Q3. A better-than expected growth on US GDP was reported on October 27, which in-turn have proved that the economic growth is moving toward the right direction. According to AAEA analyses, these movements have helped suppressing the inflationary pressures. With all these facts and analyses, the US consumers need to know that the economic policy from the current administration is working. Nothing will go a hundred percent perfect–but most Americans prefer to have their jobs, and will to pay a little higher grocery price, rather than being unemployed.

The World Cannot Avoid Inflation. It is a New Normal

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If anyone thinks that the gas price will go back at a level of five years ago–that perhaps just a day dream. If Americans think that they can live in the same condition (during the time of Andy Griffith shows were produced) before COVID–that is an absurd and wishful thinking. The new world economy has shifted–from cheap to expensive–while your salary has not changed a lot. What has made the world changed dramatically? It was COVID. However, what we meant by COVID in this article, is not just COVID-19 with all its variants. Rather COVID that not too many people are talking about. It is COVID every where, it is on the financial markets, it is on politics; it is on family member relationships; it is on your insurance copay; it’s at schools (read: school shooting) across the nation–it is everywhere.

Therefore, when you think about COVID–it is not just affected your raspatory-lung system. Rather, it is also on your other systems such as your pockets As it is for COVID-19 to stay forever in the world; and will never disappear–so does inflation. The general price (read: inflation) increases as the new COVID in prices, will stay–and it will not go away. It does not matter who will control the US Senate and House–or who will be in the other executive branch. Like COVID-19–no one can control its coming and going–so does the inflation.

The ones that are concerned only to get your votes, will promise that they can make the financial-COVID (read: Inflation) goes away, then one needs to ask her or him, the following question: do you have the vaccines ready to treat it? If people cannot think logically, then how can he or she can solve the inflation problem. They always use the same narrative–and that is, if I lose, it means someone has cheated on me. Blaming on someone else as a unilateral platform, rather than to think logically how to solve the nation problem, is an obvious sign of incompetent, lies and deceits. How can one logical person has to be forced to accept that the answer of 1 + 1 = 10 (read: the claim that there is no Covid-19, even though he or she has contracted the disease).

But, as it is now you have a job–that is a prove that you are better-off. Though, you have to pay higher price at the grocery stores; you can do it because you still have a job. However, if you get fired because the company where you have been working has to close their operation. then you will have zero income. It does not matter how low the inflation or stuff at the grocery stores–you can not pay for it, for you are unemployed. Logical folks will choose being employed, and willing to pay higher grocery prices than being unemployed with zero income.

Equity Gap, Bounded Rationale and Data Science

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We have discussed the role of Data Science (DS) in previous BLOG, many years ago. In the past 9 years, DS has become a hot potato. Practically speaking, every higher ed institution tries to capture this opportunity, even though some may be the followers because others did it. DS is needed because of bounded rationale of human mind to be able to analyze voluminous data, and be able to transform them into meaningful information.

DS is not someone who can write a code in R or Python alone. But a statistician and a strategist as well. DS is not a coder, but a decoder. More importantly, someone who has the ability to see the future because of what he does with the data. He is a scientific fortune teller. So, knowing how to write codes, does not make someone to be a DS. Because, it requires more than the ability to write SQL queries. It is the ability to show a better path, other than the current condition that matters most. For example, how can an institution is able to empower their employees using DS. How can DS contribute to lower cost of production. How DS can lower the product selling price. Those are what matters. It is not just to increase an entity’s bottom line, because that is too simplistic. That is not DS.

Higher ed now is challenged to come out with viable solutions on addressing equity gap. How can higher learning institutions are able to reduce equity gap using DS? This also shows that the old Institutional Research concept is dead, many years ago for its inability to address many issues, not just student loans or ever increasing college cost. The ability to transform data to increase the well-being of the society, that what matters. And that what IRI is.